Mark Horn
Brazil has demonstrated both the viability of and challenges associated with sugarcane-derived ethanol as a gasoline replacement (Ethanol fuel in Brazil.)Ethanol distillery and dehydration facility in Piracicaba
[Wikimedia Commons, Mario Roberto Duran Ortiz]
Brazil is recognized to have the worlds first sustainable biofuels economy, with a fleet of more than 15 million flex fuel vehicles, capable of running on 100% ethanol, 100% gasoline(although gasoline in Brazil today contains 25% ethanol) or any mix in between. Brazilian ethanol was recognized by the US EPA in 2010 as an advanced biofuel, as it reduces by 61% total life cycle GG emissions, including indirect land use change emissions.
But many factors influence this bioethanol economy, among them gas and sugar prices, the weather, extent of use of residues and cost and availability of capital for construction of ethanol distilleries and renovation of the sugarcane crop,
We know that ethanol production will increase, almost certainly dramatically, in the coming years. This due to increased investment, pending introduction of more productive and resistant cane cultivars and production of cellulosic ethanol from residues.
How long of a long term solution cane ethanol will be is unclear. It will depend on the success of alternative technologies, such as seaweed-derived ethanol and direct conversion technologies (Which Biofuels Hold the Most Promise for the Future - Interview with Jim Lane). But my gut feeling is that ethanol distilleries will be part of the rural Brazilian landscape for many years to come.
See question on Quora
Reference: bioenergysystems.blogspot.com
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