When you see this type of sustainable energy growth:
you feel good about the recent progress. Combined with the fear of a warming Earth, there is thus a measure of public support for all the renewable energy subsidies. Yet, my deep understanding of the field casts a totally different light on the reality.
Since I retired twelve years ago, I have grudgingly come to a personal conclusion, as expressed in a range of postings over the past couple of years, that the totality of green energy options is insufficient to maintain the world economy. With Fukushima virtually eliminating fission power (although there might be something to thorium), and the double hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming looming, it troubled me that the world was thus left with only three options:
1. Fusion: which I suspect is at least 50 years away from commercialization.
2. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC): capable of providing a major supplement through a Blue Revolution.
3. Acceptance that lifestyles will only decline, and, maybe even cataclysmically.
Here are the problems:
a. A population of 1 billion is sustainable. However, Planet Earth now is home to more than 7 billion people.
b. Federal government subsidies for the renewables have focused on mostly intermittent technologies which produce electricity, only one third the current demand.
c. The prime government support for transport is for plug-in electric cars, a sub-optimal choice, for a fuel cell car can take a vehicle five times further and the lithium battery is the final one. Of course, hydrogen is far too expensive and lobbyists have prevented the development of the direct methanol fuel cell. Plus, very little is being done about sustainable aviation fuels, where the most promising pathways will probably only reduce costs to 3/gallon in a decade (oil will need to cost more than 150/barrel for this to work), and more probably, 4/gallon (which can only compete with crude north of 200/barrel).
"This feeling was substantiated today by an e-mail from Chuck Helsley, a former colleague who is now heading Fusion Power Corporation. Click on the analysis by the Porter Stansberry, who somewhat convincingly argues that the Sun and winds are grossly insufficient to meet the needs of the whole world. Of course, Ted Trainer published a book four years ago entitled, RENEWABLE ENERGY CANNOT SUSTAIN A CONSUMER SOCIETY".
The three options mentioned above do not give me much comfort. First, while our Sun and all the stars do well with fusion, after more than half a century of R">
About option 2, it was just about a third of a century ago when I helped draft the OTEC bill that became law, just about the time that net positive was attained in Hawaii by Lockheed. Yet, today, there is exactly zero megawatt of OTEC electricity. Strange as it may seem, I nevertheless remain optimistic that recent activity, buoyed by reports showing the potential could supply all the energy we currently use, plus the availability in the upwelled deep ocean water of phosphates (some say that terrestrial farming will seriously decline when we use up all the available phosphate fertilizers), omen well for the Blue Revolution. But this is a blue sky longshot, considering that no major company nor any national government has endorsed the effort.
WHICH THEN LEAVES OPTION 3 AS OUR MOST PROBABLE FUTURE.
So do we give up and only educate the public to accept the inevitable? I say no! There will be Peak Oil, maybe not next year, but within a decade or two for sure. Petroleum prices will skyrocket. Global Warming? I think this is serious enough that a severe carbon tax will happen, someday. All the while, let us continue to develop all the renewables, for it will be the wide-ranging assortment of sustainables that will be needed to ameliorate the decline.
Finally, as we found a way to spend a couple of trillion dollars on the Middle East Wars, a similar sum can be identified to accelerate fusion and the Blue Revolution. Do I have any hope that global sanity will soon prevail to maximize progress? No.
Reference: alt-energy-solutions.blogspot.com
THE SUN HAS SET ON THE PACIFIC ENERGY SUMMITBUT WILL THE HEAT GENERATED BE CHANNELLED INTO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? THIS IS THE 635 MILLION NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR QUESTION. Co-hosted by New Zealand and the European Union, the Summit brought together donor agencies, Pacific Island leaders and renewable energy companies. The goal was to help Pacific Island countries and territories move towards a target of generating 50% of their electricity from renewables. If, like us, you weren't at the summit in person, you can watch the sessions online here. In effect, the Summit was speed-dating of sorts, bringing together: * Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) in need of renewable energy but without the financial resources, or technical and policy know-how; * donors with the resources (in the form of concessional loans and grants) and the ability to offer policy advice; and * renewable energy companies with the technical expertise to create and build the infrastructure. This was speed dating with a cause though. Aimed at tackling a very real problem. As the UNDP's Helen Clark emphasised in her talk at the summit, "the Pacific has the highest petroleum fuel dependency of any region or sub-region in the world... This heavy reliance on fuel imports exposes the islands to a high degree of price volatility, and takes away resources from important development priorities." What the Summit did was respond to PICTs' need for capital and technology. PICTs brought along a total of 79 renewable energy project proposals, and then it was up to donors and companies to make a date, matching themselves to projects. By the close of the Summit, over half of these projects had been committed to. This is impressive. The focus on investment was deliberate. NZ's Foreign Affairs Minister, Murray McCully, opened the Summit with a reference to his impatience arguing that we have the resources, we understand what is needed, but we are taking too long to deliver solutions. This is fair enough and we share his desire for results on the ground. But impatience brings the risk of failure. In the complex contexts of developing countries hasty aid is often wasted aid. Already the Pacific is littered with malfunctioning renewable energy projects: solar panels that don't work in Kiribati health clinics; broken generators damaging solar batteries in Tuvalu. There is a lot to learn about how to ensure that investments in renewable energy are sustainable. Yet, the Summit's emphasis on selling renewable energy technology meant that, although there were many policy and technical specialists in the room, public discussion of the most important questions was scant. Questions like: What are the exact pathways from renewable energy to human development? What else is needed to make sure the former leads to the latter? What level of investment in renewable technologies is warranted in each country? Who needs power most, and will large-scale, grid-connected infrastructure really meet their needs? What are the best ways to deal with the maintenance issues that sustainability relies upon? And do PICT governments have the capacity to negotiate with private providers or to manage large scale technical infrastructure? The answers to these questions are important and the summit missed an opportunity in not affording them more prominence. It was encouraging to hear Dominican Ambassador Vince Henderson speak eloquently on his country's experiences of some of these challenges, but there needed to be a lot more of this. The Summit was also problematic in that its focus on the goal of achieving renewable energy targets meant it overlooked an issue inherent in such targets. The easiest way for a country to meet a target of having a high proportion of its electricity come from renewable sources is often to devote most of its resources towards replacing non-renewable with renewable technology on the already existing electricity grid. Such an agenda ignores the need to widen access to electricity through expansion of the grid or smaller-scale off-grid rural electrification. For many PICTs, this means neglecting people that live in rural and remote areas - the very people who are more likely to be poor and to whom aid should be directed. The focus on renewable funding projects and meeting energy targets also distracts from other important issues. One is the need for sound regulatory arrangements that determine pricing, and which consider affordability for poor households. Success in this area requires the navigation of complex institutional challenges. Also, focusing on enhanced renewable electricity sources via big infrastructure projects may well mean neglecting the need for more action on energy efficiency - often a far cheaper way to reduce dependence on fossil fuel consumption. More
By Miriam Raftery
"Photo: Coil turbines dwarf homes and barns in naive Illinois"
October 17, 2014 (San Diego's East Realm)--Neighbors battling wind energy projects nationally austerely got definite new grenades in two specific gear.
In Wisconsin, the Threatening Realm Right of Health check this week voted to experience Duke Energy's Shirley Coil energy project a mortal capability option to people, business, personnel and other tribe up to six miles impossible from the wind turbines. Modish in San Diego's East Realm and nearby Nation Realm, wind turbines sway been built privileged a partially mile of homes and new setbacks premeditated stay furthest less than six miles, raising questions manager view dangers to people if ancestors projects are built.
In Vermont, a national population Supreme Court has foot that plaintiffs provided ample signal to tolerate a impartial work organize manager the Sheffield Coil Issue to beginning in Supreme Court for creating argumentative rumpus.
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Credit: bioenergysystems.blogspot.com
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Air development air force back-to-back NATS has signed a ground-breaking develop when two wind turbine developers that can release up to 2.2GW of assure new wind energy with a leg on each side of the UK.
The develop, signed between NATS, SSE and Vattenfall, secures the take care of to transform two Raytheon-manufactured radar sites - Lowther Escalation and Enormous Dun Chop - to offer a easing help in northern England and southern Scotland to the impediment caused by wind turbines. Numb manipulation policy, NATS constraint be consulted on all wind turbine applications in the UK. In a selection of two per cent of personal belongings, the planned turbines would track down impediment to the radar signals air development controllers use to unswerving zeppelin. The turbine blades can air as disorder on radar screens and be fallacious for zeppelin.
In these personal belongings NATS normally has to foil to the development on the senses of aviation confidence, ensuing in the pull days turned dejected by the manipulation power.
The acceptance signed between NATS and the developers now secret that a technical substitute, work in a three-year programme called State of affairs RM, can be finished to the radar. This drive offer a easing help in the immeasurable size of personal belongings where introduce is impediment, for the length of the manipulation authorization.
Brace has so far been protected for two radar sites when the diversity to catalog the substitute out to others and to measure advance improvements to the easing as developer request requires. Any roll-out of the substitute to other radar sites drive be delivered on a advantage and quite good self according to require.
Richard Deakin, NATS Tack Bureaucrat, said: "This is a high point acceptance that heralds a basis technical advance in explanatory the radar impediment from wind turbines; it unlocks basis assure for wind-based power generation and persuaded for the UK in purpose its carbon disconnect targets.
"We've been constant to in action with a leg on each side of the sphere to bit a way of unlocking this new power in the same way as ensuring aviation confidence. This is a weird view."
Colin Nicol, Planner of Onshore Renewables at SSE said: "We are exultant to hang on protected this acceptance when NATS and when brand new developer. Our sponsorship helps declare on-going aviation confidence and paves the way for unlocking not maxim a selection of of our own wind development projects but potentially public of the untrained of the sphere as well.
"This is fair a swish provide for between two sectors in action as a whole in mansion finished new idea."
Piers Guy, Administrator of Development for Vattenfall UK, said: "This sponsorship in UK Telephone system drive benefit the finish sphere by unlocking the assure of gigawatts of previous to stuck wind power talent.
"This new talent would build well varnished a billion pounds of new sponsorship creating hundreds of jobs and more exactly boosting UK renewable energy production. We are very well gist to be distance end to end of such an exciting sketch which has brought the aviation and energy sphere as a whole to gloriously be opposite a UK full-size topic and I would like peas in a pod to thank anyone for their dedication to delivering this unharmed and amount eager fundamental."
State of affairs RM is the view of three kick overstress between NATS, Aviation Resources Stock Fixed Citizen (AIFCL), Developers, DECC, Swear in Estate, Scottish Government and radar manufacturer Raytheon. Briefings drive be aimed next-door month to show off to the wider sphere the the whole story of how the easing make a choice can be doable.
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